Gold was once the linchpin of the global monetary system and is still seen by many as a hedge against inflation. But if investors are really frightened of price rises, it is hard to see evidence in the government bond market. There has been a modest increase in inflation expectations (measured by the difference between the yield on inflation-linked bonds from that on conventional bonds). But the Treasury bond market is only pointing to average inflation of 1.9% over the next 20 years.
Conventional explanations of supply and demand do not work, either. Mining production is slightly up year on year; jewellery demand is down by 13.8%. The main demand has been led by investment. Retail and institutional investors have been buying gold through exchange-traded funds, which allow them to have a pooled stake in bullion.
But blaming the rise on ETF purchases does not answer the fundamental question; why do investors want exposure to gold at all? The dollar is the prime suspect. Gold’s rise coincided with a fall in the greenback on a report (since denied) that oil-producing countries were talking about replacing the dollar as the pricing currency. When the dollar falls, as it has since March, risk-averse investors tend to buy gold.
Thursday, October 8, 2009
A weak dollar explains the rising price of gold?
Inquiring minds are reading the Economist article Bullion bulls:
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